Thinking out loud: NBA First Round thoughts
And this is why we love the NBA Playoffs.
April 18th. The first day of the NBA postseason. The most exciting time of the year and why we all love basketball.
It has only been two weeks since that date. It feels like it has been months, given how much drama, suspense, and grind-it-out series we just had.
The number one seed in the East was down 3-1 to an eight seed that was declared missing before the play-in tournament and came all the way back to advance. A three-time MVP and his team couldn’t shut Jaden McDaniels up, or stop Ayo Dosunmu from looking like 2006 Dwyane Wade. A 41-year old was the best player in a playoff series. I’ll give you one guess as to who I am referring to. Hint: he’s the guy throwing lobs to his son.
Joel Embiid, who had an appendectomy two weeks ago, and was moving like a 50-year old at LA Fitness runs, helped the Sixers come back from 3-1 against the mighty Celtics. The Cavs, who were 24 minutes away from DEFCON 1, realized that they were actually a good basketball team and smoked the Raptors in Game 7.
So much happened in the first round of the playoffs. And the field of 16 has been trimmed down to 8. We will have James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, and Joel Embiid, the three players that are usually at the front of playoff jokes, duke it out for a conference finals appearance. In the West, we appear headed for an OKC-San Antonio conference finals, but not if Anthony Edwards or LeBron James have anything to say about it.
We are entering the best part of the playoffs. But, before we move forward, I’d like to look back at the most intriguing storylines and questions I have from round one.
Joel Embiid shut up all of his critics
I have always thought that Joel Embiid has gotten the short end of the stick. He seems to get criticized at every turn. From being called fragile to people questioning his 2023 MVP award to his multiple playoff failures, Embiid has never gotten the benefit of the doubt or any sympathy from the majority of NBA fans.
This guy had an APPENDECTOMY, less than a month ago and came back to be there for his team. He played through Bell’s palsy in 2024. He has played through a fractured orbital bone, and a cascade of knee injuries.
You cannot say that Joel Embiid doesn’t love the game or that he’s not tough. Because he does love the game and he is tough.
Philly looked primed to get swept or lose in five games to the Celtics. They looked destined for another offseason of questions. Then Embiid came back and completely changed this series, including two 30-point performances in Boston. A team he has never beat. That is the stuff of legend.
Embiid will go down as one of the bigger what-ifs in NBA history. No doubt about it. But after what he just did to the Celtics, coming back from 3-1, and looking like his old self, his toughness should never be questioned again.
Now, he has a chance to reach the conference finals for the first time in his career, with the Knicks standing in his way. I am here for the Embiid revenge tour.
Is this it for the Jaylen Brown era in Boston?
The Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown debate has been going on for nearly a decade now. Even after Brown won Finals MVP in 2024, I never thought that he was a better or more impactful player than Tatum.
This season, Brown was able to take the reins and had the best individual season of his career. He performed like a First-Team All-NBA player this year. There’s no denying that.
But there is one thing that we cannot ignore, especially since we have years of data to support it: the Celtics are a better team with Brown off the court. And that includes this season.
Why you ask? Offensively, the ball often stops with Brown, as he is almost always looking for his shot first, rather than making the smart play. Defensively, he has declined steadily over the years. Over the last three years, Boston has a +17.3 net rating with him off the court in the playoffs.
Granted, they have a +7.0 net rating with him on, but being nearly ten points better without a guy that is supposed to be one of your best guys is alarming.
He’s also had his fair share of playoff stinkers and his series against the Sixers was up and down. He had a good start to the series, but completely disappeared in Games 5 and 6. When he isn’t scoring, he is not as effective, whereas Tatum is always impacting the game in other ways.
Against Philly, Boston had a +20.2 net rating with Brown off, a -12.0 net rating with Tatum off, a +15.6 net with Tatum and no Brown, and a -18.6 net with Brown and no Tatum. Their offense craters when Brown is out there with no Tatum because the ball movement stops and Brown goes shot hunting.
Where was all that talk about how he should be in the MVP conversation? Or that he is the best two-way guy in the league?
Yeah, that dude got outplayed by Paul George, who is having a resurgence, but still disappointing on Brown’s part.
Also, Brown seemed to really enjoy being the first option this year, to the point where he went on Twitch last night and said this was his favorite year of playing in the NBA.
Mind you, this is a guy with a CHAMPIONSHIP RING, and a FINALS MVP. And you’re saying that in a year where you weren’t playing with your superstar teammate? In a year where you lost and blew a 3-1 lead to a Philadelphia team that didn’t have their best player for three games? That’s your favorite season Jaylen? Really?
It seems that he thinks he can lead his own team and with the rumors that the Celtics could pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer, Brown’s future is something to watch. Does he want to keep playing second fiddle to Tatum or does he want to be the first option somewhere? Maybe I’ll go on his Twitch stream and ask him that.
The Enver Nuggets are headed for big changes
I said I’d call them Denver again when they started getting stops. Well, that didn’t happen in the playoffs. Sorry, guys.
I will be the first to admit that I was very high on the Nuggets coming into the season. I liked them getting Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas in the offseason. I thought Christian Braun and Peyton Watson would be a menacing defensive duo. And obviously you have your core in Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon.
That never came together this year. This group was injured, fell apart defensively, and got packed up by McDaniels and Co. in the first round. He called them out after Game 2 for being bad defenders, and Enver was never able to shut him up.
Murray was picked on relentlessly defensively and shut down by McDaniels offensively. Jokic looked lost trying to break the wall that was Rudy Gobert. Johnson, Hardaway, Braun, and Gordon could not provide enough support, although Gordon was injured.
Braun was especially alarming because he was essentially an offensive zero and it hurt the Nuggets a lot. No Watson in this series was a back-breaker as well, but now Enver has a lot of questions to answer.
Murray’s extension kicks in this year and he did have an All-NBA worthy year, so he likely won’t get moved. Jokic will also likely sign an extension. Those two won’t go anywhere.
The priority will be retaining Watson, but you can’t keep him, Johnson, Braun, and Gordon. You’ll like be able to keep two of those four. Do you bank on Braun bouncing back next season? Do you move on from Gordon before his injury history gets worse? Do you move on from Johnson and get more athleticism on the wing?
The Nuggets have a lot of questions and have to find a way to maximize their window with Jokic. Their formula of winning before with shooting, their two-man game, and just passable defense isn’t going to cut it anymore. They need more defenders, playmakers, and athleticism. The question is how they address those weaknesses.
Damn u think they should trade Brown?